Welcome to October 2020 in Nashville, TN!

It’s hard to make sense of any political landscape these days whether it is national, state, or local. This is my best shot at describing the framework I am using to interpret events as we approach the end of 2020.

First, let’s talk about the challenges we are facing. Nationally, the Presidential Election overshadows everything and has dramatically spilled over to impact the state and local levels. My sense is that, since sometime in 2019, it’s become nearly impossible to take a strong position on any local issue without it being viewed through a partisan lens. Our national tilt toward Orwellian doublespeak has also spilled over locally and it gets in the way. I think it is important to take a stand against the forces — especially racist forces — tearing at the fabric of society. Whether we like it or not, the polarization of national politics will play a role locally at least through the federal election cycle.

Another challenge is the upcoming referendum that is conditionally set for December 15. There are two points I’ll make here. First, I’ll be paying attention to when the impending Election Commission lawsuit reaches a conclusion about putting the petition on the ballot or not. If the courts require the election to go forward (and they may very well do that), I would expect Metro to start cutting expenses more or less immediately after the court decision. Some will claim this is a scare tactic, but the reality is that if this petition goes on a ballot Metro will need to start cutting back immediately. I would expect cutbacks to ratchet up again after December 15 if voters were to support the petition. I would expect cutbacks to ratchet up if property tax collections are slower than normal in November and December. As we approach a December 15 election, the pre-election cuts to the Metro government will be closely followed by all.

I’ll also be paying attention to the details around a formal political campaign against the petition. I’m hoping that we see talk turn into action soon so we can all know how to help defeat the petition at the ballot box.

A third challenge is the continued rumors about another possible recall effort against Mayor Cooper. Here’s my take — even if you don’t like Cooper at all, I fundamentally don’t understand how a recall would help the city. To be blunt about it, if you are a recall enthusiast — what’s your play? If you get enough signatures (about 65,000-ish) and you beat Cooper in an election and a run-off, then your new mayor would be immediately thrust into the height of the Metro budget cycle and have about 18 months before they would be running again by late 2022? I don’t understand how a revolving door on the Mayor’s Office is good for Nashville even if you don’t like how Cooper is governing. Unfortunately, by rumor, there are some recall folks interested in pushing the city into yet another election cycle.

There are two immediate opportunities that Metro should keep pursuing no matter what headwinds the city is experiencing.

On policing issues and hiring a new Chief of Police, the city must move toward openly embracing change without falling into the habit of half-measures. Genuinely improving the relationship between MNPD and the Community Oversight Board should be a high priority for whoever is hired as the new Chief of Police. It’s not obvious to me today whether a new Chief will be told that a condition of employment will be to genuinely improve these relationships.

Then with economic development, I am concerned that Nashville may just be saying no to everything. I know the culture in the Mayor’s office is to do better deals (as opposed to no deals). But it worries me that the city government no longer has any full-time economic development staff. The bottom line is that a growing city with 700,000 people needs to have some forward-leaning plan and set of actions for economic development. I don’t think the administration can afford to wait out the referendum and any possible recall efforts before moving the city forward with a plan for economic development.

These are the major threads that will have my attention through the end of the year. As always, there are a host of other important issues, including dealing with COVID-19, public safety, education, how the city interacts with the state government, and transit. But the issues I talk about here are the ones that I think will have the biggest impact through the end of 2020.